HDB Prices Fell. Million-Dollar Flats Hit a Record. What Does This Mean for Your Next Move?

You read that HDB resale prices have fallen for three consecutive quarters.

Then you see another flat selling for more than $1 million.

Meanwhile, private home prices are rising again.

If you are thinking of selling, buying or upgrading, these headlines can leave you wondering: should I move now, wait, or lower my expectations?

My starting point is to work out which part of the market actually affects you. A national price index gives us context. Your decision needs a much closer look at your home, your alternatives and your numbers.

The latest Q3 2026 figures show why that distinction matters.

A softer HDB market can still have very expensive flats

According to the flash estimates covered in PropNex Research’s 1 October report, HDB resale prices declined by 0.2% in Q3, bringing the cumulative decline for the first nine months of 2026 to 0.6%.

Yet the same report recorded 597 million-dollar resale flat transactions in Q3, a new quarterly high.

Both can happen together because buyers are choosing between very different homes.

A spacious flat near the MRT, with a practical layout and a location that suits the family, may attract buyers who struggle to find a suitable replacement. Another flat may face several similar listings within walking distance.

My reading is that we need to pay closer attention to what buyers will pay extra for, and where they have enough alternatives to negotiate.

For sellers, this means a record sale in your town is a starting point for comparison. We still need to examine the flat type, size, floor, remaining lease and location before using it to support your asking price.

For buyers, a softer overall market does not guarantee a discount on the particular home you want.

The question I would ask on either side is: how easily can a buyer replace this home with another one?

More transactions do not automatically mean higher prices

The report puts HDB resale transactions at 7,528 up to 29 September, already above the 6,396 recorded in Q2.

That is useful context for a seller worried that nobody is buying anymore. Buyers are still completing purchases even as the overall price index eases.

One possible interpretation is that more buyers and sellers are finding prices they can both accept. It does not prove that every seller needs to reduce their price, or that demand has strengthened equally everywhere.

When assessing a listing, I would look at what happened to comparable homes. Which ones sold? At what price? Which remain available? What does a buyer get by choosing yours instead?

Those comparisons help us build a pricing strategy that can stand up to a buyer’s questions.

Private prices rose, but your condo may tell a different story

The overall private residential price index rose by 1.4% in Q3, according to the flash estimates.

However, the report also shows that the median transacted price per square foot for new non-landed private homes rose by 9.6%, while the resale median fell by 1.0%.

These are different measures. The medians are affected by the mix of homes sold, so they do not mean every new launch became 9.6% more expensive or every resale condo lost 1.0% of its value.

For a condo owner, the practical takeaway is to examine transactions within your project and its closest competitors before assuming the wider increase has lifted your unit’s value.

For a buyer, a large gap between new and resale prices is worth investigating. A lower resale price may come with a shorter lease, an older building or a less suitable layout. It may also offer more usable space at a total price that works better for your family.

I would compare the actual homes you can buy with the same budget, then ask whether the premium buys something meaningful to you and your eventual buyer.

Upgrading means looking at two prices together

This is where the headlines can feel especially uncomfortable for HDB owners. Your current market appears softer while the private market is rising.

Before deciding to rush or wait, I would calculate the gap between a realistic sale price and a suitable replacement home.

Consider an illustrative example. Your flat could sell for $800,000, and the condo you are considering costs $1.8 million. The headline gap is $1 million.

If your flat later sells for $820,000 but that condo costs $1.88 million, you have achieved a higher selling price while the gap has widened to $1.06 million.

That is why holding out for a record sale price can sometimes make the next move harder.

We would also need to account for the outstanding loan, CPF refund, transaction costs, renovation, financing and cash buffer. The sale price alone does not tell us how comfortable the upgrade will be.

I want the plan to work after you collect the keys, when the monthly instalments become part of everyday family life.

Your future buyer belongs in today’s decision

The report found that 55.4% of new non-landed private home transactions were below $2.5 million in Q3, down from 69.4% in Q2. It attributes much of that shift to the launch and sales mix.

I would not treat that as proof that everyone can now afford more. It raises a useful question about the homes available at different budgets.

If you buy today and eventually want to sell, who is likely to consider your home? What could they afford? What other projects and layouts might they choose instead?

For example, a future family buyer may compare your compact three-bedroom condo with a larger resale unit nearby. Your newer property may appeal to them, but we should be able to explain why they would choose it at the price you hope to achieve.

Thinking through that comparison early helps you understand what you are paying for and where the risks sit.

What I would help you work out before your next move

Market news becomes useful when we connect it to a decision you actually need to make.

If you are selling, I would help you identify your likely buyer, test your price against their alternatives and plan what happens after the sale.

If you are buying, I would help you compare homes within your comfortable budget, understand the trade-offs and assess how the property might compete when you eventually sell.

If you are upgrading, we would put the sale, purchase, financing and timeline together so you can see whether the move improves your family’s position.

Sometimes that process supports moving ahead. Sometimes it reveals a better alternative, or a good reason to stay where you are for now.

You do not need to have everything figured out before we speak. If these headlines have left you unsure, bring me your current property, the homes you are considering and what you hope the move will improve. We can work through the questions together.

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*Source: PropNex Research market commentary dated 1 October 2026, supplied for this article, drawing on URA, HDB, URA Realis and data.gov.sg. Q3 price indices are flash estimates, with final figures scheduled for 23 October 2026. Transaction figures reflect the report’s stated cut-off dates. The upgrading example is illustrative; buyer behaviour and decision implications are our interpretation of the reported data.