As we stand at the threshold of a new year, the canvas of Singapore’s private residential property market unfurls with anticipation and intrigue. In this blog post, we will offer a glimpse into what 2024 might hold for property enthusiasts, investors, and those with a keen eye on the market trends.
Painting The Price Landscape
Our projections suggest a measured growth of 3% to 4% in overall private home prices for 2024, a subtle deceleration from the 4% to 5% increase witnessed in 2023. The canvas of these predictions is textured with firm land prices, ascending construction costs, heightened interest rates, and the introduction of new rules on gross floor area definitions — elements that collectively exert an upside pressure on prices.
As of the end of Q3 2023, the URA property price index reflects a cumulative 3.9% rise in the first nine months of the year. However, with prices reaching their peak and cooling measures taking effect, transaction volumes have seen a moderation in 2023, creating an interesting dynamic for the year ahead. (see Chart 1)
Setting Benchmarks and Shaping Skylines
In 2023, the landscape of private residential projects witnessed the establishment of new benchmarks, with several standout developments leading the way. Notable mentions include J’den, a best-seller boasting an average price of $2,474 per square foot (psf) (see Table 1), TMW Maxwell, which transacted new units at an average price of $3,348 psf, and Altura EC, making waves with an unprecedented average price of $1,474 psf for Executive Condominiums (ECs).
Charting The Course for 2024
The trajectory for new private home sales (excluding ECs) in 2023 seems set to underperform compared to the 7,099 units sold in 2022. With approximately 6,290 new units (excluding ECs) sold as of 26 November 2023, we anticipate a total transaction range of 6,500 to 7,000 new homes by the year’s end.
Looking ahead, more than 30 projects (excluding ECs) with over 10,000 residential units are poised to grace the market (See Chart 2), with the Outside Central Region (OCR) contributing nearly 46% of the anticipated supply.
Home Sales Landscape
Our forecast suggests a steady course for home sales, with an estimated 7,000 to 7,500 units (excluding Executive Condominiums or ECs) from developers and 13,000 to 14,000 private homes in the resale market.
Resale properties emerge as steadfast contenders. We also anticipate a stable demand for resale homes, attributing it to their more affordable prices compared to new launches. The average price gap, a substantial 50% in Q4 2023 (see Chart 3), underscores the appeal of resale properties as an attractive and economical housing option
Landed Homes: Resilience Amid Economic Modesty
Zooming into the realm of landed homes, the modest economic outlook and market uncertainties may cast a shadow on sales in this segment. However, landed home prices are projected to stand resilient in the near-term. The owners of these properties, endowed with substantial financial holding power, exhibit a reluctance to hastily part with their prized assets. Despite tepid transactions in 2023, the average unit prices on land area have held steady (see Chart 4), a testament to the scarcity of such properties in the Singaporean landscape.
ABSD Rates: A Muted Impact on Landed Homes
The narrative of Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty (ABSD) rate hikes for foreigners and investors takes an interesting turn in the context of landed homes. We do see that the impact is likely to be muted, given that these houses are predominantly purchased by Singaporeans, often for personal occupancy rather than speculative investment. This unique characteristic shields the landed homes market from the more significant ripples felt in other segments.
As we traverse the landscape of 2024, the real estate market in Singapore beckons with promise and resilience. The interplay of factors — from resale market stability to the unique dynamics of landed homes — forms a compelling narrative of a market brimming with opportunities.
Wondering if it’s the right time to buy, sell, or wait it out?
These decisions can be tough, and there isn’t a one-size-fits-all answer.
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