Ever since Dunearn House was announced, one comparison keeps appearing in conversations, social media discussions, and property forums.

“Will Dunearn House become another Fourth Avenue?”

It’s a reasonable concern.

Both projects are located within the Bukit Timah area. Both appeal to buyers looking for a premium residential address. And because Fourth Avenue Residences didn’t deliver the kind of resale performance many expected after TOP, some buyers are using it as the benchmark for Dunearn House.

But before we conclude that history will repeat itself, we think there’s a more important question to ask.

Are we comparing the right things?

The Comparison Most Buyers Make

The common thinking usually goes something like this:

• Fourth Avenue underperformed.
• Dunearn House is nearby.
• Therefore, Dunearn House may face the same outcome.

At first glance, it sounds logical.

After all, if two projects are located within the same area and target a similar buyer profile, surely their performance should be similar too.

But property markets don’t work that way.

Every launch takes place under different market conditions, different buyer behaviour, different competing projects, and different pricing environments.

Sometimes, the location stays the same.

Everything else changes.

Instead Of Asking “Did Fourth Avenue Perform?”

We believe buyers should ask a different question.

Instead of asking:

“Did Fourth Avenue perform?”

Ask:

“Why did Fourth Avenue perform the way it did?”

That small shift completely changes the conversation.

Because understanding why something happened often gives us far more useful insights than simply looking at the outcome.

Let’s Go Back To 2019

To understand the story, we need to go back to when buyers were actually making their decisions.

Fourth Avenue Residences launched at approximately $2,406 psf.

Around the same period, Treasure at Tampines launched at approximately $1,280 psf.

That meant buyers looking at both projects were faced with an almost 88% price premium.

Think about that for a moment.

Yes, Fourth Avenue is a CCR-fringe project in a more premium location.

Treasure is an OCR mega-development.

They’re not identical projects.

But buyers weren’t comparing identical projects.

They were comparing where to put their money.

And that’s a very important distinction.

Buyers Don’t Just Compare Locations

Many people assume buyers compare projects based purely on district.

CCR versus OCR.

Prime versus suburban.

Bukit Timah versus Tampines.

In reality, buyers often compare something much simpler.

Value.

When one project costs almost twice as much as another, buyers naturally begin asking:

“Is the premium worth paying?”

Perhaps Fourth Avenue wasn’t a weak project.

Perhaps the premium buyers had to pay relative to the alternatives available at that point in time was simply too high.

If that’s true, then the conversation around Dunearn House changes entirely.

So How Should We Look At Dunearn House Today?

Instead of assuming history will repeat itself, we should ask whether today’s buyers are facing the same pricing landscape.

Today’s estimated launch prices are roughly:

• Dunearn House: around $3,200 psf
• Vela Bay: around $2,886 psf
• Pinery Residences: around $2,546 psf

Immediately, another question appears.

Is today’s premium similar to the 88% premium buyers faced back in 2019?

If the gap has narrowed significantly, then buyers today are making a very different decision from buyers seven years ago.

And if the buying environment is different, should we expect the outcome to be exactly the same?

Perhaps not.

Of Course, Price Is Only One Piece Of The Puzzle

This doesn’t automatically mean Dunearn House is a good buy.

Neither does it mean Fourth Avenue was misunderstood.

Price is simply one variable.

Whenever we analyse a project, we also study:

• Future buyer pool
• Affordability of the target market
• Nearby competing launches
• Future GLS land bids
• Supply entering the market
• Exit demand
• Long-term resale positioning

These factors work together to determine how attractive a project may be over time.

Looking at only one historical comparison rarely gives the full picture.

Our Thoughts

We’re not trying to prove that Dunearn House will outperform.

We’re also not suggesting buyers should ignore Fourth Avenue completely.

What we’re suggesting is something much simpler.

Don’t stop at the comparison. Understand the reason behind it.

Because two projects may look similar on the surface, but the market conditions surrounding them can be completely different.

Sometimes, changing the framework changes the conclusion.

Instead of asking:

“Will Dunearn House become another Fourth Avenue?”

Perhaps the better question is:

“Are today’s buyers making the same decision buyers made in 2019?”

In our view, that’s the question worth answering.

Because great property decisions aren’t made by copying history.

They’re made by understanding why history happened in the first place.